CENTRAL VALLEY – Two of the South Valley’s top crops are on the decline due to withering domestic demand and shifting trade winds from high tariffs.
Almonds had been the ultimate crop for farmers to replace low price produce for high dollar acreage. Now, new plantings have seen their first significant decline in years.
California almond farmers planted just 17,000 acres of new almond trees from June 2023 through May 2024, according to a report by agriculture data company Land IQ. That is down from 31,000 acres in 2023 and 43,000 acres from June 2021 to May 2022.
There were 2.12 million almond trees sold by California nurseries since June 1, 2023. About 29% of the total trees sold (5,000 acres) were for new almond orchard acres and 59% (10,000 acres) replaced existing almond orchards. The remaining trees sold replaced trees within existing almond orchards.
Meanwhile California’s bearing almond acreage grew a little in 2025, according to the Initial Acreage Estimate from Land IQ, commissioned by the Almond Board of California (ABC). The report estimates that bearing orchards will cover approximately 1.389 million acres for the 2025 harvest—an increase of about 6,000 acres compared to 2024. This follows a similarly small increase of 9,000 acres the previous year, which marked the slowest growth in two decades.
The report also anticipates that around 51,805 acres of almond orchards will be removed by the end of the crop year, adding to the nearly 67,000 acres removed during the 2023–24 period, based on Land IQ’s November 2024 estimate. These removals contribute to a broader trend of declining total and non-bearing acreage across the state over the past three years.
In the South Valley, Kings County shows 1,518 acres removed, Kern County 8,138 acres pulled (biggest decline in the state), Fresno County 5,355 acres removed and Tulare County 2,698 acres removed.
Almonds are Fresno County’s second highest valued crop, often trading the top spot with grapes, with a total value of over $1 billion in 2023, the latest numbers available. They are far less significant in Tulare County, with a total value of $387 million, which ranks sixth on the list of top dollar crops in 2023.
California grape acreage falls
California wine grape acreage has shrunk 25,000 acres since 2022, according to a new USDA report. Wine grape acres were 615,000 in 2022 but as of 2024 declined to 590,000 acres. Table grapes also fell by 7,000 acres to 120,000 acres as of 2024.
Low profitability and the urging of the industry resulted in growers pulling vineyards and reducing new plantings. Allied Grape Growers had lobbied for 50,000 acres to be removed to meet declining demand.
Grapes were Fresno County’s top crop in 2023, the most recent numbers available, with a total value of more than $1.3 billion. But even they have seen a decline in the county as harvested acreage fell by 14,229 from 2022 to 2023, the largest drop in the last six years.
In contrast, Tulare County’s grape plantings have been decreasing for decades. The area is known for growing grapes used for blending wines in Napa and Paso Robles but more importantly table grapes and raisins.
Ports expect 40% drop in shipping
The decline in acreage will be compounded by the possible decline in exports to Asian markets, especially to China, from California ports.
Los Angeles’s two big ports are each expecting about 40% fewer ships coming to unload cargo in the next two weeks as the Trump tariffs take hold. Port of LA Executive Director Gene Seroka announced the news at the Harbor Commission meeting this week expecting cargo shipments to drop 35% in about two weeks. The Port of Long Beach has predicted a 44% decline starting the week of May 4. The two are the busiest container ports in North America.
Seroka told the commission that retailers may have a six- to eight-week supply of goods “but that will quickly dry up” and consumers may see empty shelves this summer. Seroka added that large importers have “hit the pause button on cargo from China” unable to handle a 145% tariff.
“If you’re buying a product from China, it costs 2.5 times more than it did last month,” Seroka said.
Big box retailers have warned President Trump that consumers would see empty shelves this summer if this standoff drags on. Dock workers on the West Coast could see less work as the ships that usually call, stay away.
Farm exports are already suffering from the retaliatory tariffs.
“These are hitting American businesses hard, particularly agriculture, heavy duty manufacturing, and the information technology and services sectors,” Seroka added. “U.S. exporters are having an especially challenging time, so much so that in March, China bought more soybeans from Brazil in one month than ever in their history.”
California ports play a major role in the state’s agricultural shipments, handling both exports and imports. Key ports like Los Angeles and Long Beach are significant for containerized agricultural exports. The Port of Los Angeles, in particular, handles animal feed, cotton, and orange exports. The Port of Oakland is a major gateway for agricultural exports, especially refrigerated proteins. Oakland is also predicting a major slowdown in shipping through their port.
The current industry climate could be a double hit for Fresno County, where almonds and grapes are the top crops and almonds represent more than one-third of Fresno’s exports.
Tulare County exports more pistachios than almonds but grapes are the No. 3 export for both Tulare and Fresno Counties. China is the top destination for Tulare County ag exports, receiving 3.7 million cartons of produce in 2023.
